Friday, April 10, 2026

15 games on the slate · 8 high-edge games

Boston Red Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

Connelly Early vs Dustin May · 2026-04-11T00:15Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 67°F, 9mph SW (blowing out)

Pitcher fip gap of 3.1 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (67°f)

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 Model Estimate: 16.6% edge Units: 0.5

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies

Michael Soroka vs Jesus Luzardo · 2026-04-10T22:40Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 45°F, 5mph S (calm)

Away traveled 2077mi

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 Model Estimate: 16.0% edge Units: 0.5

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres

Tomoyuki Sugano vs Walker Buehler · 2026-04-11T01:40Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 64°F, 1mph SE (calm)

Model finds strong 15.2% edge in this matchup

Pick: Colorado Rockies +1.5 Model Estimate: 15.2% edge Units: 0.5

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

Tatsuya Imai vs Emerson Hancock · 2026-04-11T01:40Z

HIGH STRONG – warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Away traveled 1889mi

Pick: Houston Astros +1.5 Model Estimate: 15.1% edge Units: 0.5

Los Angeles Angels @ Cincinnati Reds

Jack Kochanowicz vs Chase Burns · 2026-04-10T22:45Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 58°F, 5mph S (calm)

Away traveled 1879mi

Pick: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 14.7% edge Units: 0.5

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

Carmen Mlodzinski vs Shota Imanaga · 2026-04-10T18:20Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 42°F, 11mph N (blowing in)

Model finds strong 14.6% edge in this matchup

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Model Estimate: 14.6% edge Units: 0.5

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

Davis Martin vs Kris Bubic · 2026-04-10T23:40Z

HIGH STRONG – warning 54°F, 6mph N (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 1.7 points favors the away starter

Pick: Chicago White Sox +1.5 Model Estimate: 13.7% edge Units: 0.5

Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays

Simeon Woods Richardson vs Patrick Corbin · 2026-04-10T23:07Z

HIGH STRONG – warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Model finds strong 12.6% edge in this matchup

Pick: Minnesota Twins +1.5 Model Estimate: 12.6% edge Units: 0.5

San Francisco Giants @ Baltimore Orioles

Landen Roupp vs Shane Baz · 2026-04-10T23:15Z

MEDIUM STRONG – warning 48°F, 6mph S (calm)

Away traveled 2449mi

Pick: San Francisco Giants +1.5 Model Estimate: 9.8% edge Units: 0.5

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

Luis Gil vs Steven Matz · 2026-04-10T23:10Z

MEDIUM STRONG ↓ warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Model finds strong 9.2% edge in this matchup

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 Model Estimate: 9.2% edge Units: 0.5

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Kumar Rocker vs Tyler Glasnow · 2026-04-11T02:10Z

MEDIUM STRONG – warning 61°F, 3mph W (calm)

Model finds strong 8.9% edge in this matchup

Pick: UNDER 9.0 Model Estimate: 8.9% edge Units: 0.5

Miami Marlins @ Detroit Tigers

Chris Paddack vs Keider Montero · 2026-04-10T22:40Z

MEDIUM LEAN – warning 43°F, 6mph NE (calm)

Pitcher fip gap of 2.8 points favors the home starter

Pick: Miami Marlins +1.5 Model Estimate: 5.2% edge Units: 0.25

Athletics @ New York Mets

J.T. Ginn vs Clay Holmes · 2026-04-10T23:10Z

LOW SKIP – warning 45°F, 5mph S (calm)

Away traveled 2562mi

Pick: Athletics +1.5 Model Estimate: 4.6% edge Units: 0.02

Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers

Jake Irvin vs Chad Patrick · 2026-04-10T23:40Z

LOW SKIP – warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral

Model finds skip 3.1% edge in this matchup

Pick: Washington Nationals +1.5 Model Estimate: 3.1% edge Units: 0.02

psychologyWhat the Model Sees

Model identified 8 high-edge games across today's 15-game slate
Strongest signal: BOS at STL with 16.6% model edge
2 games with notable weather impact on projected totals

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