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Sunday, April 5, 2026
14 games on the slate · 8 high-edge games
● 8 High
● 3 Medium
● 2 Low
Houston Astros @ Athletics
Lance McCullers Jr. vs Jacob Lopez · 2026-04-05T20:05Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning Stadium not found
Pitcher fip gap of 4.8 points favors the away starter. away traveled 1630mi
Pick: Athletics +1.5
Edge: 18.9
Units: 0.5
Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians
Edward Cabrera vs Slade Cecconi · 2026-04-05T17:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 41°F, 10mph W (crosswind)
Pitcher fip gap of 3.9 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (41°f)
Pick: Cleveland Guardians +1.5
Edge: 16.8
Units: 0.5
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
Luis Castillo vs Ryan Johnson · 2026-04-05T20:07Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 55°F, 4mph N (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 5.0 points favors the away starter
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +1.5
Edge: 16.4
Units: 0.5
San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox
Walker Buehler vs Ranger Suarez · 2026-04-05T17:35Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 42°F, 2mph SW (calm)
Away traveled 2576mi
Pick: UNDER 9.0
Edge: 14.8
Units: 0.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
Taijuan Walker vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 2026-04-05T19:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 33°F, 4mph NW (calm)
Away traveled 1575mi
Pick: UNDER 11.0
Edge: 13.1
Units: 0.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago White Sox
Eric Lauer vs Davis Martin · 2026-04-05T18:10Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 37°F, 14mph W (blowing out)
Pitcher fip gap of 1.8 points favors the away starter. weather factor in play (37°f)
Pick: Chicago White Sox +1.5
Edge: 12.8
Units: 0.5
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
Kodai Senga vs Logan Webb · 2026-04-05T20:05Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 54°F, 2mph N (calm)
Away traveled 2571mi
Pick: San Francisco Giants (-118)
Edge: 12.6
Units: 0.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals
Roki Sasaki vs Foster Griffin · 2026-04-05T17:35Z
HIGH
STRONG
–
warning 73°F, 17mph S (blowing out)
Weather factor in play (73°f). away traveled 2295mi
Pick: Washington Nationals +1.5
Edge: 10.4
Units: 0.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Detroit Tigers
Kyle Leahy vs Keider Montero · 2026-04-05T23:20Z
MEDIUM
STRONG
–
warning 41°F, 13mph W (crosswind)
Weather factor in play (41°f)
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
Edge: 8.5
Units: 0.5
Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians
Shota Imanaga vs Parker Messick · 2026-04-05T20:40Z
MEDIUM
STRONG
–
warning 41°F, 10mph W (crosswind)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.1 points favors the home starter. weather factor in play (41°f)
Pick: Cleveland Guardians +1.5
Edge: 8.0
Units: 0.5
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Martin Perez vs Brandon Pfaadt · 2026-04-05T20:10Z
MEDIUM
LEAN
–
warning Dome/retractable roof — weather neutral
Away traveled 1588mi
Pick: UNDER 9.0
Edge: 6.6
Units: 0.25
Miami Marlins @ New York Yankees
Chris Paddack vs Max Fried · 2026-04-05T17:35Z
LOW
SKIP
–
warning 46°F, 1mph E (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 4.5 points favors the home starter
Pick: Miami Marlins +1.5
Edge: 4.2
Units: 0.02
Milwaukee Brewers @ Kansas City Royals
Kyle Harrison vs Kris Bubic · 2026-04-05T18:10Z
LOW
SKIP
–
warning 39°F, 7mph NW (calm)
Pitcher fip gap of 2.3 points favors the away starter
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +1.0
Edge: 3.8
Units: 0.08
psychologyWhat the Model Sees
- Model identified 8 high-edge games across today's 14-game slate
- Strongest signal: HOU at OAK with 18.9% model edge
- 3 games with notable weather impact on projected totals
- Model leans underdog in 1 high-edge spot
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